Bolsanaro’s Desperation, Bad Poland, Guinea Coup, India Farmers and The Week in Review

Blog / Weekly Review

Bolsanaro’s Desperation, Bad Poland, Guinea Coup, India Farmers and The Week in Review

Bolsonaro’s desperation. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro called for his supporters to gather throughout the country on Brazil’s Independence Day on Tuesday. In a speech in front of tens of thousands of those supporters in São Paulo, Bolsonaro said he would either be arrested, killed, or remain president – and that only God himself could remove him from power. Bolsonaro also said he would no longer comply with any orders given by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. 

What it means: These look like desperate attempts of a flailing politician more so than a serious threat to Brazilian democracy. Even so, as we warned earlier this year, all Bolsonaro’s economic reforms are now deadlocked in Congress over his controversial tactic of attracting more voter support. For more stories and analysis like this, please consider checking out LatamPolitik.

Bad Poland. ​​The European Commission requested the European Court of Justice impose daily financial penalties on Poland until it complies with an order from July 14th to ensure Polish judicial independence. The EC also sent a formal letter of notice to Poland for not complying with an ECJ ruling that concluded the Polish law on disciplining its judges is incompatible with EU law. 

What it means: That is quite a way to come back from Europe’s summer holiday. These are slaps on the wrist, to be sure – but they are also tangible expressions of EC disapproval of Poland and a warning sign the EU will take further actions if necessary.

A coup in Guinea. Soldiers in Guinea led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, a former member of the French legionary, took over the country via coup d’état.

What it means: Aluminum prices spiked almost 2 percent, hitting a 10-year high, on the news. Guinea is the largest exporter and the second-largest producer of bauxite in the world. It also has the world’s largest bauxite reserves.

The future of India depends on its farmers. Hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers restarted protests against the Indian government’s agricultural reforms.

What it means: Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for roughly 58 percent of India’s entire population. 66 percent of India’s population still live in rural areas – and 70 percent of rural households are farmers, the vast majority of them small and relatively poor. India will always be an important global economic force simply by virtue of its size, but the extent to which India will become a more meaningful political actor on the world stage in the coming years will depend in large part on the extent to which Prime Minister Modi’s long-awaited agricultural reforms improve the daily lives of farmers and optimize India’s inefficient food supply chains. For more, click here.

Honorable mention

Ten large or midsize Chinese banks reported a significant increase in their non-performing loan ratios.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Japanese Foreign Minister and Prime Minister-candidate Fumio Kishida said Japan needs to build an independent missile-strike capability.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He insisted that China’s support for the private economy had not changed and would not change in the future due to the fact that it contributes over 50 percent of Chinese tax revenue, 60 percent of Chinese GDP, and 80 percent of urban employment.

Saudi Arabia cut crude contract prices for Asia by at least $1 a barrel.

El Salvador’s Supreme Court ruled that President Nayib Bukele can serve two consecutive terms as president, paving the way for Bukele to stand for re-election in 2024.

Uzbekistan announced it will allow schoolgirls to wear Islamic headscarves in school.

Uruguay and China agreed to begin negotiations of a bilateral free trade agreement.

While visiting Berlin, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that time is running out for Iran to negotiate a return to the JCPOA after an IAEA report said Tehran was “seriously undermining” attempts to inspect its nuclear activities.